2023 Bold Calls for the American League

We are excited about the beginning of the MLB season, if you couldn't tell from our Instagram and Twitter posts. Here we're going to feature one bold prediction for each team in the American League, and tomorrow we're going to feature the same for the National League. Think of each of these predictions as a little snippet of memorabilia investment advice - because when they come true this season, you're going to wish you picked up that signed baseball or rookie card that you passed on!

The Baltimore Orioles make playoffs for the first time since 2016

Adley Rutschman is a bonafide stud already, Gunnar Henderson looks like the real deal, Grayson Rodriguez will look to crack the big league roster in camp - they have a fun storyline, and a good window right now where Boston looks deflated and Tampa doesn’t look like the killer they were two years ago (though who saw it coming then, either). I think they make a sizeable move at the deadline to fill some holes and steal the third Wildcard spot in the final week of the season.

Masataka Yoshida of the Boston Red Sox wins the AL Rookie of the Year

Aside from his awesome play in the World Baseball Classic, this is just a blind shoutout to ZiPS, a popular projection model that has seemingly nailed equivalencies between the MLB and Japan’s NPB. The last couple years, the ZiPS model has been one of the best at projecting Japanese imports, and they have Yoshida carving himself out a very nice first season in Boston, even leading the league in batting average (at .305, which is hilarious). Masataka is at 10:1 currently for AL Rookie of the Year odds, for what it’s worth

Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez both play over 100 games for the Chicago White Sox

They’re injured all the time - Robert has never played 100 games (he debuted in 2020) and Jimenez hasn’t played more than 84 games since 2019. The odds on this are pretty low, and there’s nothing more than me just hoping here, but I think the success of the White Sox in the AL Central is dependent on two of their biggest lineup pieces stringing together healthy years.

The Cleveland Guardians' Jose Ramirez wins the AL MVP

He’s been top 6 in MVP voting for 5 of the last 6 years, and top three for three of those years, all while getting shifted on more than almost anybody in baseball. He has a shift on him roughly 96% of the time - no more. This guy was incredible with the shift, he’ll be even better without it. He’s currently +1600 to win the AL MVP

Miguel Cabrera has a Pujols-esque finish for the Detroit Tigers

He’s making the All Star Team whether he deserves it or not, so I couldn’t just say that, but I’m gonna say Cabrera bats .300 with 20+ HR to cap off his Hall of Fame career. This is all gut - there’s no statistical reasoning, other than I think Rob Manfred was juicing Pujols himself to get ratings by July last season. 

The Houston Astros' Hunter Brown finishes second in AL Rookie of the Year voting

He was originally my pick just to be bold, but Yoshida was more of an honest pick. Hunter Brown is a relatively unknown starter/reliever with only 20 innings under his belt, but he looked fantastic. He has a good heater, averaging around 97 and topping around 100, and some good velocity differential pitches, with his slider in the low 90s and curve in the low 80s. In a limited sample, he had a higher ground ball rate than Framber Valdez, the king of the dirt in the Majors. I think he can run away with a rotation spot if he cracks it. 

The Kansas City Royals' 1B Vinnie Pasquantino has a massive breakout season

Pasquie was shifted on 93.2% of the time, and I love the way he approaches hitting. He will enter this season as a relative unknown because of the team he’s on, but he put up solid numbers with very good underlying statistics last year and will benefit greatly from the shift limitations.

Anthony Rendon plays more games than Shohei Ohtani for the LA Angels

Rendon has played 157 games in his three years with the Angels, spread pretty evenly at 52, 58 and 47 games a season. The Angels have had three legit MVP candidates when healthy on their roster for 3 seasons and haven’t sniffed the playoffs because they can’t all stay healthy at the same time. I’ve said for years that Shohei is the player that is most exposed to injury in all of baseball, and I think it might catch up to him this season. So this is a two-pronged call, and maybe my most bold in the AL, but it requires Rendon to play more than he’s ever played with the Angels, and Shohei to get hurt in some fashion. Honestly, I hope it doesn’t happen (unless they both play 150+)

Newly acquired by the Minnesota Twins, Joey Gallo is the best left fielder in baseball

This is contingent on Yordan Alvarez, currently nursing a hand injury, playing more DH than LF this season, because as it stands, the Astros are planning on starting him out there after only 56 games out there last year. Gallo is probably the first player to come to mind to benefit when the shift limitations were put in place, and rightfully so - he was pretty awful with them, and was understandably vocal about the outrageous shifts against him. Gallo’s power has never been in question, but everything else in between has been sucked up by the shift, resulting in sub-.200 batting averages in the last three years straight. He has a killer walk rate which will likely improve with the shift ban, as pitching to him will now be even more dangerous, and his BABIP will likely jump up quite a bit. He had an abysmal .219 batting average on balls in play last year. If Yordan plays LF for the majority of the year, this will be very tough to achieve, but after him, it’s open season for the next best left fielder.

Bryan Reynolds hits three homers in the playoffs for the New York Yankees

Reynolds has voiced his displeasure with the direction of the Pirates, he’s perfect trade bait, and the Yankees have the pieces to move with a vacancy in LF. It just makes too much sense. I can’t just say that he’ll be a Yankee, because that’s almost not bold enough, so I’ll just say: three homers in the playoffs.

The Oakland Athletics' Jace Peterson finishes with a higher WAR than crosstown name-doppelgänger Joc Pederson

Jace has been a personal favourite underdog for years and years dating back to his Atlanta days. Very little power, solid glove, solid approach at the plate, 25th round pick, nobody knows his name. He’ll fit right in in Oakland. Joc Pederson’s a fine player, in his now second year with the Giants, but I’m gonna go with my boy on this one who enjoyed a resurgence in Milwaukee, where all of my obscure baseball calls seem to go. 

Seattle Mariners young stud Jarred Kelenic finds his breakout!

I once said that Jarred Kelenic would be better than Wander Franco and I have looked pretty stupid ever since. This is my vindication year - Kelenic, only 23 years old, mind you, hits 25+ HR, bats over .290, and reminds people why he was once traded for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. 

The Tampa Bay Rays acquire Corbin Burnes at the deadline, miss playoffs by one game

Burnes has voiced his displeasure with the Brewers after his arbitration talks didn’t go according to plan. He’s one of, if not THE, best pitchers in the game. He’s a free agent after the 2024 season, so he’ll have 1.5 years left with whatever team gets him at the deadline if he’s dealt. The Rays, like usual, have one of the best farms in the game, headlined by an Australian 3B named Curtis Mead. They have the pieces to do it (albeit, it will decimate the farm system most likely) and Burnes may be the push they need to jump over the on-the-rise Orioles and their young, fun team. I have them winning 89 games with this move, missing playoffs in the last game of the season to the Blue Jays.

Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager comes second in AL MVP voting

Similar thinking to Jose Ramirez winning the trophy - he’s an elite hitter who has succeeded despite the shift. He was shifted against 92.8% of the time. That’s 609 plate appearances where he had to face an extra fielder on his pull side and still put up All-Star numbers (albeit, pretty pedestrian numbers for Seager). He’s +2200 to win AL MVP if you think I haven’t given him enough credit.

Toronto Blue Jays second starter Kevin Gausman wins the AL Cy Young

Gausman was my Cy Young call last year and he did all he could, coming second to only Verlander in the AL in WAR. Verlander’s in the NL, Rodon and DeGrom are in the AL now, but it seems his biggest competition is Alek Manoah, who Jays fans (and management, maybe?) seem to trust even more than Gausman after his big breakout last year. Gausman lead the AL in FIP last year, his walk rate was great, his strikeout rate was great, I think he’s just poised for another elite year, especially with Toronto’s much improved defence.