2023 Bold Calls for the National League
Yesterday, we featured our bold predictions for each team in the American League. Today, we're rounding out the MLB with our National League bold calls, just in time for Opening Day 2023!
Arizona Diamondbacks rookie Corbin Carroll steals 65 bases
The last time someone stole 65 bases was Juan Pierre in 2010 with 68. This Carroll kid is really fast, from what I’ve seen in a limited sample of Spring Training games. And he is going to be given the green light hard in Arizona. Steals are bound to go up this year, with limited pick-offs, bigger bases and shift limitations. This kid likes to steal, and the opportunities are going to be there. I also think he’s projected to bat leadoff for this team, a team that really is going to need to produce some runs.
Atlanta Braves starter Mike Soroka comes back, has a WAR above 2.5 on the season
This could mean that Soroka’s either excellent in a limited number of starts, or pretty good but actually plays a good portion of the season. My money’s more on the first guess, but hey, this guy was supposed to be the future of Atlanta’s rotation, and he hasn’t thrown a pitch since August of 2020. If he throws an inning out there that’s a small W, if he’s successful out there, that’s huge.
New Chicago Cub Cody Bellinger hits 25 HR, has an OBP above .340
I’m not saying he’s going to be back to MVP form, but he’s going to bounce back to an everyday player. Bellinger is only a few years removed from being the best player on the best team in baseball, this doesn’t seem too crazy…right?
Alexis Diaz of the Cincinnati Reds leads the NL in saves
When Edwin Diaz went down in the WBC, the MLB lost their best closer. His little brother, Alexis, was a rookie last year with a 1.04 ERA for the Reds, and his stuff is electric. It runs in the family. Saves are hard to predict, but taking a look at the Reds roster... it looks like any wins they come across may be close enough to warrant a closer coming in to save it, so he may see a lot of action in the ninth.
Randal Grichuk hits a walk-off HR for the Colorado Rockies vs the New York Yankees in the July 14-16 series at Coors
Grichuk has more HR against the Yankees than he does against any opponent, which shouldn’t be that surprising considering his time with the Blue Jays, but I seem to remember him always getting timely hits against the Yankees. He plays at Coors, facing his favourite team to smash, and like the Senga pick, this is just a huge shot in the dark, but it’ll be super fun if it works! Really, the biggest thing going against it is trusting that the Rockies will have kept it close in a game against the Yankees.
Yency Almonte leads the Los Angeles Dodgers in saves
Almonte had a 1.02 ERA last year in his first year outside of Colorado, with the Dodgers. They don’t have a concrete closer with job security - right now ESPN’s depth chart has Brusdar Graterol, Evan Phillies, Daniel Hudson and Alex Vesia platooning for save opportunities. Dave Roberts is a crafty manager, and I think he’ll rotate relievers into the closing role throughout the year, but I think Almonte comes up big, is trusted often, and leads this team in saves.
Miami Marlins starters lead the NL in team ERA... but the Marlins still miss the playoffs
Sandy Alcantara aside, I think the Marlins have some solid arms in the rotation. They lost Pedro Lopez, who I really like, but added Johnny Cueto. This is more of a knock on ERA as a shaky statistic and a bit of a moonshot, but there’s almost nobody better in the game to anchor the rotation than Sandy Alcantara.
Rowdy Tellez has his breakout year for the Milwaukee Brewers
Rowdy was shifted on in 460 of his 587 PAs (78.4%) last year, and generated some very good contact, only hitting the ball softly in 17.5%. Those hard line drives are going to start dropping this year, and that monster 18.7% HR/FB genuinely seems sustainable for a player with his raw power. Also his name is Rowdy Tellez, how do you not cheer for this guy?
Somebody throws a perfect game for the first time since 2012... for the New York Mets... and it’s Kodai Senga
Here’s just a bit of a background on Senga, newly acquired from Japan: he’s got a fastball that ranges from 95-100 mph, which he pairs with a cutter and a slider, and his famous pitch, which in Japan was called the “ghost forkball,” which sounds terrifying. The whiff rate on that forkball (in Japan, granted), is around the same as Mets closer Edwin Diaz’s slider, RIP. Now, you can never predict a perfect game with anything more than just a shot in the dark, but after seeing footage of his forkball, I see this as a very dangerous pitch, and if he has a game where it’s at 100% and he’s pairing that with a 98-99 mph heater, he’s got the tools to do it.
The Philadelphia Phillies big free agent signing Trea Turner wins the NL MVP
Turner has the eighth highest odds in the NL at +1500 to win the trophy, but in the past two seasons, he has the highest WAR among all players currently in the NL (only second to Judge). He is somehow still quite underrated, and not really my type of pick. Doesn’t walk a lot, doesn’t have a tonne of power, but he’s a gritty, slap-hitting ballplayer that Philly is going to adore and he’s a genuinely elite player despite never finishing above the top 5 in MVP voting. And man, he looked so good in the WBC for Team USA.
Pittsburgh Pirates 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes steals the Gold Glove away from Nolan Arenado
Hayes is a defensive metric nerd’s dream, and he looks awesome in the field. The problem is that nobody watches Pirates games, but maybe this is the year that it slips away from Arenado for the first time in his career and Hayes becomes a name for the Pirates.
The San Diego Padres' big FA signing, Xander Bogaerts, is a bust in 2023
He was one of the biggest free agents this year, and he’s been incredible thus far in his career, but I think this change of scenery is about to make Boston look genius. I’ve never been the biggest fan from an eye test perspective, I’m hoping for a touch of personal vindication on the west coast now.
San Francisco Giants starter Alex Cobb has a sub-3 ERA
Cobb got very unlucky last year, with a .336 batting average on balls in play last season. I’m expecting a real bounce back and some luck regression. He’s projected to be the second man in the rotation after newly minted ace Logan Webb, I think they form a killer 1-2 tandem that gets talked about all year (though, I still don’t have them making the playoffs).
St. Louis Cardinals legend Adam Wainwright wins his 20th game of the season in the final game of the year, and final game of his career
Pitcher wins have more to do with the quality of the team than anything, and the Cardinals have the reigning NL MVP in Paul Goldschmidt and perennial MVP candidate Nolan Arenado across the diamond. It would be a nice story to end Waino’s career, wouldn’t it?
Washington Nationals prospect MacKenzie Gore has a sub-3.50 ERA and 150 Ks
Gore just turned 24 and had a pretty mediocre first taste of the big leagues last year in 70 innings with the Padres, but he’s only a few years removed from being the top pitching prospect in baseball. What else is there to say about who is maybe the worst team in baseball? (Seriously, they’re awful)